Tariffs imposed on metals and other materials used in ammunition manufacturing are beginning to ripple through the gun market, increasing production costs for manufacturers and pushing retail prices higher for consumers. President Donald Trump has described himself as the “most pro-gun president ever” — a sentiment echoed by his White House counsel — but trade policies implemented during his administrations have added new costs to the raw materials and components used to produce ammunition in the United States.
According to figures compiled by retailer Ammunition Depot and cited by The Trace, the average daily price of one round of 9mm full metal jacket (FMJ) ammunition, the most common caliber in the U.S. market, has climbed steadily since late 2025. In January 2026, it briefly topped 35 cents per round — roughly 10 cents higher than the average price during 2025.
Because ammunition is typically purchased in large quantities, even small increases can quickly add up. A gun owner purchasing 1,000 rounds of 9mm ammunition could pay roughly $100 more than they would have just a year earlier. But this is likely only the beginning of what could be an enduring volatile market for ammunition.
passing costs on to consumers
According to industry pricing data discussed on The Reload podcast with Nathaniel Boos, founder and CEO of Black Basin Outdoors, wholesale prices for ammunition have steadily increased since late 2025. Boos reported that cases of ammunition that previously sold for $186 had increased to $196, with additional increases of roughly 5 to 7 percent expected through 2026.1The Reload, “How Tariffs and War Have Impacted the Ammo Market (Ft. Black Basin Outdoors),” YouTube, March 16, 2026, https://youtu.be/Kv7TCgvobtQ, at 7:20.
The Kinetic Group, the largest ammunition manufacturer in the United States, recently announced that it would increase prices across several of its brands, such as Blazer, Federal Premium, Remington Ammunition, and Speer, due to the “unprecedented cost increases and unforeseen volatility of key raw materials,” including copper, lead, zinc, antimony, tungsten, and bismuth, as well as propellants. The price increases ranged from 2 to 10 percent across all ammunition types.
During a recent earnings call, Kenneth Lane, CEO of Olin Corporation, told investors that rising raw material costs and trade policies restricting imports had forced the company — which owns the Winchester ammunition brand — to cut jobs and prepare to raise prices. Lane acknowledged that the company’s “fourth quarter came in significantly below our expectations,” pointing to tariffs that have driven up the cost of key metals like brass and copper. He warned that customers would ultimately feel the impact, noting that the company would need to “start passing through a lot of these cost increases” that began in 2025 and are continuing in 2026.
wiping out lower-cost ammUNITION
These price increases are occurring alongside another shift in the market: the disappearance of some lower-cost imported ammunition. According to Boos, tariffs have effectively wiped out a portion of the cheapest imported ammunition, particularly Turkish and Eastern European brands, reducing competition and pushing demand toward domestic manufacturers.2Ibid at 4:58. That, in turn, can drive prices even higher for ammunition made in the United States.3Ibid at 7:15.
Similarly, Olin executives recently told investors that ammunition “imports from Brazil, which typically is the largest importer, have disappeared completely.” According to the company, imported ammunition “satisfied approximately 12% of U.S. demand.”
what about guns?
Gun manufacturers themselves have acknowledged the impact of tariffs in financial disclosures to investors. During a September 2025 earnings call, executives at Smith & Wesson told investors that tariffs were affecting the company’s performance, noting a “120 basis point negative impact from tariffs, primarily stemming from steel.” That December, the company again reported that tariffs had reduced gross margins, citing an “80 basis point negative impact from tariffs” during the quarter. More recently, in March, the company reported a 160 basis point impact on its gross margins due to tariffs.
Additionally, Ruger CEO Todd Seyfert told investors last November that the firearms market is facing headwinds from “tariff and interest rate uncertainty, inflationary pressures and a softening job market,” all of which are affecting manufacturing costs and consumer demand.
As The Smoking Gun previously reported, gun manufacturers like Taurus are attempting to reduce the impact of tariffs by lobbying the Trump administration — which has already provided several handouts to the industry — for exemptions.