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National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment

Read the ATF’s most comprehensive study on the firearms industry and trafficking since 2000.

Beginning in 2021, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) partnered with a team of academic experts to examine firearm commerce, crime guns, and trafficking in a four-volume study called the National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA), the first comprehensive study of its kind produced in over 20 years — since the agency released its “Following the Gun” report in June 2000. The four NFCTA volumes were originally published sequentially between May 2022 and January 2025.

To help preserve the NFCTA and ensure its accessibility for researchers and policymakers, each volume has been reproduced here in its entirety.

NFCTA VOLUME I: FIREARMS IN COMMERCE

Published on May 17, 2022, Volume I of the NFCTA presents data collected by the ATF and other federal agencies that helps show the size and scope of the firearms industry. The analysis shows that the number of Gun Control Act (GCA) and National Firearms Act (NFA) weapons manufactured domestically increased by 187 percent between 2000 and 2020, while the number of firearms exported and imported increased by 240 and 350 percent, respectively. The report also highlights trends in firearm commerce, such as 9mm pistols becoming the dominant firearm type manufactured in the country, as well as the stark rise of untraceable ghost guns, or privately made firearms.

NFCTA VOLUME II: CRIME GUN INTELLIGENCE AND ANALYSIS

Published on February 1, 2023, Volume II of the NFCTA presents and analyzes data on crime guns recovered between 2017 and 2021,2A “crime gun” is any firearm used in a crime or identified by law enforcement as suspected of having been used in a crime. including who manufactured them and how quickly they were recovered after being sold, a figure known as “time to crime” that is considered a key indicator of gun trafficking. Nearly 25 percent of traced crime guns — more than 366,000 guns — had a time-to-crime of less than one year, and 46 percent had a time-to-crime of three years or less. Volume III also discusses trafficking patterns and technological developments like machine gun conversion devices.

STATE REPORTS
CITY REPORTS
ADDENDUM CITY REPORTS
TERRITORY REPORTS

NFCTA VOLUME III: FIREARM TRAFFICKING INVESTIGATIONS

Published on April 4, 2024, Volume III of the NFCTA examined more than 10,000 firearm trafficking investigations initiated by ATF special agents between 2017 and 2021. Using ATF case management data and detailed agent surveys, the study provided first-of-its-kind insights into modern firearm trafficking schemes, the profiles of traffickers and end-users, and the violence associated with these criminal activities. For a detailed summary and key data points, click here.

NFCTA VOLUME IV: PROTECTING AMERICA FROM TRAFFICKED FIREARM

Published on January 8, 2025, Volume IV of the NFCTA provides updated findings and trends from previous volumes that highlight how firearms reach criminal actors, including new data on ghost guns and machine gun conversion devices. The report also underscores the critical role that the ATF and its partners play in disrupting trafficking networks by sharing cutting-edge crime gun intelligence information. For a detailed summary and key data points, click here.