The Trump administration extended several handouts to the gun industry this past year, but a look at financial data shows that deregulation and reduced federal oversight were not enough to shield gun companies from economic headwinds. Throughout the year, gun makers and sellers faced mounting financial pressures: tariffs on imported firearms and steel that drove up costs, persistent inflation that suppressed consumer spending, and declining sales that reflected weakening demand across the sector.
While the vast majority of the gun industry — including gun manufacturers, wholesalers, and dealers — are privately held, a few are publicly traded, providing deeper insights into their business practices and financial health. After a year marked by persistent challenges, here’s a look at how 2025 unfolded for the industry.
Editor’s Note: Prior quarterly updates for 2025 and 2024 are available here. To learn more about the firearm supply chain and how it works, click here.
gun industry headwinds
The gun industry faced strong headwinds throughout 2025, as a confluence of economic and political factors stifled demand and squeezed margins across the sector.
Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration created significant cost pressures for manufacturers and importers. The European Union now faces a 15-percent tariff on firearms, hitting major European firearms importers like Beretta, Glock, and FN. In addition to these import tariffs, domestic manufacturers faced increased costs for key raw materials, with steel currently subject to a 50-percent tariff. While certain gun makers reportedly paid lobbyists top dollar to seek exemptions from these tariffs, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) remained silent on the issue.
Economic pressures, including inflation, translated into reduced consumer discretionary spending on firearms and accessories. The industry struggled to maintain sales volumes as price-conscious consumers pulled back.
The most tangible measure of the industry’s struggles came from adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data. NICS checks declined for seven consecutive months from February through August 2025. The declines were substantial: April saw a 3.4-percent year-over-year decrease, June fell 5.1 percent, and August plummeted 9.9 percent compared to the prior year. Most significantly, July marked the first time in nearly six years that NICS checks fell below one million, a threshold the industry had consistently exceeded since 2019. Overall, through October, year-to-date NICS checks fell 3.5 percent compared to 2024. Black Friday week, typically one of the industry’s busiest sales periods, saw a 13.6-percent year-over-year decrease.
Smith & Wesson
Smith & Wesson’s fiscal year 2025 was largely marked by disappointing results. In March, the company announced that its quarterly revenue fell 15.7 percent from the previous year to $115.9 million, falling short of market expectations. The company projected fiscal year 2025 revenue would be approximately 10-percent lower than fiscal year 2024, attributing lower demand to “the election results and the impact of persistent inflation.” Shares fell over 13 percent after this announcement.
In June, Smith & Wesson reported net sales of $140.8 million, 11.6-percent lower than the corresponding quarter in fiscal year 2024. CEO Mark Smith stated during an earnings call that the “quarter proved more difficult than we anticipated, largely due to macroeconomic and industry trends.” Following this announcement, shares fell 19 percent.
The company’s August 2025 annual report also revealed steep declines in the fiscal year’s gross profit (down 19.6 percent) and net sales (down 11.4 percent). In December, Smith & Wesson released its quarterly report reflecting net sales of $124.7 million, a decrease of $5 million, or 3.9 percent, from the previous year. The company’s leadership does, however, project an 8- to 10-percent increase in sales for the upcoming fiscal quarter.
outdoor holding company
Outdoor Holding Company, the parent company of GunBroker.com, experienced significant upheaval in 2025. The company completed the sale of its ammunition production business to Olin Corporation in April and rebranded from Ammo Inc. to Outdoor Holding Company.
The company received a delinquency notice from Nasdaq in April for failing to hold an annual shareholder meeting and eventually regained compliance by holding the meeting in August. GunBroker founder Steve Urvan was appointed CEO and chairman in May as part of a settlement resolving a 2023 lawsuit he filed against the company.
In August, Outdoor Holding reported a net loss of over $5.9 million, compared to a loss of over $12 million a year earlier. The issues at Outdoor Holding stemmed in part from a 2024 accounting scandal that affected the reliability of the company’s financial statements and alleged mismanagement. In October, the company also relocated its corporate headquarters to Atlanta, Georgia. In November, the company reported its first profitable quarter in years, with flat revenue and drastically lower operating expenses.
grabagun
Donald Trump Jr.-backed GrabAGun made headlines by going public in July through a merger with Colombier Acquisition Corp. II, a special purpose acquisition company funded by conservative financier Omeed Malik. Trading under the stock ticker “PEW,” the Texas-based online firearms retailer debuted with Trump Jr. ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.
However, the company’s stock price quickly plummeted. By September 3, the stock had fallen over 75 percent from its debut price. Market commentators attributed the sharp decline to skepticism about GrabAGun’s value beyond politically charged rhetoric.
On August 4, GrabAGun’s Board of Directors unanimously authorized the repurchase of up to $20 million of the company’s common stock over 12 months. On August 14, GrabAGun released its first financial results as a publicly traded company, with net revenue for the quarter of $21.2 million, compared to $20.4 million for the corresponding quarter last year. The company also launched “Shoot & Subscribe,” its version of Amazon’s “subscribe and save” for ammunition.
In November, GrabAGun reported a loss from operations of $4.2 million, primarily due to $3.2 million in stock-based compensation expenses and other costs associated with its recent public listing. By December, the company’s stock price had fallen over 80 percent to around $3.50, from its high of $18.00 in July.
ruger
Ruger underwent a leadership transition in March when longtime gun industry executive Todd Seyfert took the helm. On July 1, Ruger announced that it had purchased Anderson Manufacturing, a major Kentucky-based manufacturer of firearms and accessories. Ruger absorbed Anderson’s manufacturing plant, which had produced over 300,000 AR-style lower receivers in 2023 alone, and discontinued the Anderson brand.
In November, Ruger reported an operating loss of $2.1 million. Seyfert described the firearms market as facing “headwinds from tariff and interest rate uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and a softening job market.” He went on to note that the firearms market is “trending down 10% to 15% this year, while NICS checks, often used as a proxy for the market, down roughly 4% year-to-date versus 2024.”
In December, Italian gun maker Beretta disclosed in a regulatory filing that it had acquired over 9 percent of Ruger’s stock, up from 7 percent in September. Beretta indicated it is “actively evaluating a wide range of strategic alternatives with respect to its investment.”
olin corporation
Olin Corporation manufactures Winchester-brand ammunition and licenses the Winchester name for firearms. On January 21, Olin announced that it had reached an agreement to purchase Ammo Inc.’s ammunition business segment for $75 million, including a 185,000-square-foot production facility and ballistic range in Manitowoc, Wisconsin. The transaction closed in the second quarter of 2025.
In May, the company reported net income of $1.4 million, down sharply from $48.6 million year-over-year. With respect to its ammunition brands, the company stated that the decrease was “primarily due to lower commercial ammunition sales, partially offset by higher military sales and military project revenue.” In July, the company reported a net loss of $1.3 million, but by October, the company had rebounded, reporting net income of $42.8 million.
looking ahead to 2026
The gun industry enters 2026 facing mounting financial pressures that are likely to reshape the competitive landscape.
- Persistent economic headwinds: The macroeconomic challenges that plagued 2025 show no signs of abating. Inflation continues to constrain consumer discretionary spending, and tariffs on imported firearms and raw materials will remain in place absent policy changes, keeping upward pressure on retail prices and squeezing manufacturer margins.
- Market consolidation: The financial struggles documented throughout 2025 point toward potential consolidation within the industry. Smaller players may become acquisition targets as larger companies with more capital seek to gain market share and achieve economies of scale. Public companies trading at depressed valuations may attract private equity buyers or strategic acquirers. Smaller, privately held manufacturers without access to capital markets will face particularly acute pressure.
- Direct-to-consumer shift: As traditional brick-and-mortar gun dealers struggle, gun manufacturers may accelerate their shift toward direct-to-consumer (DTC) business models. GrabAGun’s public debut signals investor interest in online firearms retail, despite the company’s immediate stock struggles. Manufacturers may follow suit, investing in e-commerce platforms, digital marketing, and subscription models like GrabAGun’s “Shoot & Subscribe” program. This shift will allow companies to capture more margin by cutting out wholesaler and dealer markups, though it requires significant upfront investment in technology, licensing, and logistics. The transition will put additional pressure on traditional gun dealers, potentially accelerating store closures and further consolidating distribution channels.
In short, 2026 could be a difficult year for the gun industry. Companies will seek to adapt to difficult economic conditions, whether through operational improvements, strategic partnerships or cost-cutting. The industry that emerges from this period of consolidation and transformation may look markedly different than it did during the boom years of the pandemic, with fewer players, more concentrated ownership, and greater reliance on direct sales channels.